The cost of electrolytic aluminum has reached 13,900 and can still rise to 18,000

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Since the beginning of this year, environmental protection supervision has become a regular ecology, and supervising the environmental protection standards of enterprises is also an important part of supply-side reform. Since August, the fourth round of environmental protection supervision by the State Council has been stationed in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Shandong, Zhejiang and other places, resulting in a great impact on production in some areas, among which coal mines in Xinjiang have serious environmental protection problems, many shutdowns, tight coal supply in Xinjiang, and tight coal supply for some aluminum plants. A number of aluminum rod enterprises in Qinghai were affected by the supervision and received a notice to stop production and rectify; A large number of small and medium-sized processing enterprises in Shandong were shut down.

The implementation of supply-side reform has greatly exceeded market expectations, environmental protection supervision actions have accelerated the clean-up and rectification of illegal projects, and in response to supervision, the market has experienced a large number of closures and closures, resulting in a decrease in market operating rate, and environmental protection constraints have also led to tight supply of some raw materials.

In terms of bauxite, it is rumored on the Internet that the Shanxi Provincial Environmental Protection Bureau has issued documents to various production enterprises in various provinces and counties, requiring that from August 14 to September 14, those who do not have three certificates should cooperate with environmental protection and stop production and rectify! During the 19th National Congress and the National Games, regardless of whether the certificates are complete or not, all production enterprises will stop production. Although Shanxi has been making environmental noises, ore prices have not been significantly adjusted, but the government's tightening of mining rights and environmental protection has tightened the supply of domestic mines. Recently, many imported bauxite miners have said: "Many mainland alumina enterprises are seeking bauxite supply, and I believe that today, with the increasing trend of environmental protection, some mainland enterprises will soon reopen the bauxite import channel." ”

In terms of alumina, due to the impact of environmental protection, the supply of ore in the mainland is tight, the cost of alumina is rising, and with the rise in the price of electrolytic aluminum, the cost of related raw materials is also rising. As of August 31, the market price of alumina reached about 2,900 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.7% in the past half month.

It is roughly estimated that the production of one ton of electrolytic aluminum requires 1.9 tons of alumina, 13,500 kWh of electricity, as well as 0.5 tons of anode carbon briquettes and 0.02 tons of aluminum fluoride. In total, the minimum cost of producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum has reached 13,900 yuan / ton.

Therefore, the rising cost of raw materials supports the strength of aluminum prices, but as of August 31, the spot aluminum price in East China is as high as 16100 yuan / ton, obviously the current price is favorable; At the same time, the continuous rise in inventories also restricts the rise in aluminum prices; Then the supply-side reform continues to heat up, with the deepening of capacity reduction, especially the heating season to limit production, the overall upward trend of aluminum prices remains unchanged, and the next target continues to focus on the 18,000 line.